Overview

Welcome to Secretariat’s latest edition of Rebuilding Ukraine, where we explore the evolving landscape of Ukraine’s reconstruction, the challenges ahead and, emerging opportunities. Stay informed with our insights on Ukraine’s Emerging Risks, Funding and International Support, and Sanctions and Export Controls.

In this edition, we cover the latest 4th Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (published 25^th February 2025) commissioned by the Government of Ukraine, World Bank Group, the European Commission (EC), and the United Nations. We also discuss major funding announcements from the United States (US) and European Union, as well as recent sanctions and export control measures, including the EU’s 16th sanctions package and the United Kingdom’s (UK) largest sanctions package to date, which includes 107 new sanctions. 

Emerging Risks

Businesses and investors/funders in Ukraine will encounter many challenges common to conflict zones, such as corruption, regulatory uncertainties, and infrastructure deficiencies. These factors, combined with the ever-evolving sanctions and international relations, contribute to a complex risk profile for Governments, NGOs and businesses operating in or considering investment into Ukraine. We explore the multifaceted nature of these business risks, providing insights into the challenges in this volatile region.

Recent actions by investigative units within multilateral and donor organizations highlight a growing need for scrutinizing allocated funds and addressing gaps and vulnerabilities in the current capital flow process (see emerging risks under procurement).

Disclaimer: Links will redirect you to third-party websites

The funding and investment into Ukraine aims to not only alleviate the immediate impacts of the conflict, but also to pave the way for long-term stability and growth. By examining the various avenues of funding and international support, we provide an overview of the international collaborative efforts to rebuild and strengthen Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure.

Reconstruction Funding Needs

The cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery is now estimated at USD 524 billion (up from USD 486 billion), an increase of 8%, according to the Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) published in February 2025. The Strategic Investment Council (SIC) in Ukraine, with the support of donor funds, has allocated USD 7.37 billion towards redevelopment of the above identified. Despite these efforts, a significant financing gap remains, highlighting the need for continued and increasing international support. Ukraine’s sector wise summary of needs is represented in the chart below:

Ukraine Critical Sector Funding Needs

International Aid & Support

USD 283 billion of international aid has been invested into Ukraine as of 31 December 2024 (USD 239 as of 31 October 2024)

Total Aid

(Sourced from the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker)

Recent Funding Headlines

Sanctions & Export Controls

The targeted sanctions and export control regimes are aimed at constraining Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations. These measures have evolved to include a wide range of individuals, entities, and sectors critical to Russia’s economy and the war effort. Key targets include major financial institutions, energy companies, defense contractors, and high-profile political figures.

Additionally, export controls have been tightened to restrict the flow of advanced technologies and goods that could bolster Russia’s military capabilities. These restrictions have also extended to other nations and governments that continue to provide military support by allowing their territories to be used in support of the conflict, continue to engage in foreign trade with Russia, as well as diplomatic backing to economic and military cooperation.

Sanctions and export controls have added additional layers of complexity for companies and their supply chains navigating an ever-changing landscape for businesses relying on Ukrainian supply chains or who are engaged in exporting goods to and from the country. The EU has agreed to its 16th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a ban on Russian aluminum, finance and banking, trade broadcasting, and transport. This latest EU package will add 48 individuals and 35 entities to its sanctions list, including asset freezes and travel bans. Meanwhile, the UK has also announced its largest sanctions package yet, aimed at weakening the Russian military.

Tracking Recent Sanctions and Export Control Activity

Hover over a country for recent sanctions and export control activity

Recent Sanctions Themes for February 2025

1. Trade with Third Country Enablers
   The EU and UK have added 53 and 22 entities respectively, trading with Russia and supporting Russia’s military and industrial complex, thus, subjecting them to tighter export restrictions. These entities are located in Russia and other countries, including China, India, and Turkey. The list of restricted items has also been expanded to include goods and technology for Russia’s military systems, and further restrictions have been placed on exports to Russia contributing to Russian industrial capabilities.
2. North Korea
   North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang Chol, along with other senior officials, has deployed over 11,000 DPRK forces to Russia. As a result, these senior North Korean officials have been targeted by both EU and UK sanctions.
   
3. Finance and Banking
   The EU has imposed a transaction ban on credit and financial institutions outside Russia using the Central Bank of Russia’s SPFS system. Additionally, the prohibition on specialized financial messaging services has been extended further to 13 regional banks crucial to Russia’s financial system.
   
4. Broadcasting Ban
   The EU has suspended the broadcasting licenses of 8 Russian media outlets under the control of the Russian leadership, prohibiting them from broadcasting their content to the EU.
   
5. Transport, Ports and Locks
   The EU is prohibiting transactions with certain Russian ports, locks, and airports which are involved in the transfer of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), missiles, and related technology, or where they are circumventing the Oil Price Cap. The EU has also widened the flight ban to include listed air carriers operating domestic flights within Russia and exporting aviation goods to Russian entities. Additionally, the prohibition on road transport of goods by EU operators with significant Russian ownership has been increased.
   
6. Energy
   The EU has imposed further restrictions on exports of goods and technology related to oil and gas exploration and banned the provision of temporary storage for Russian crude oil and petroleum products within the EU.