Welcome to Secretariat’s first edition of Rebuilding Ukraine. This webpage has been created to provide insights on the current state and outlook of Ukraine’s rebuilding efforts, the challenges faced, and the opportunities it presents. By highlighting the resilience and determination of Ukraine and the global community’s commitment to its support, we look to provide a broad overview of the progress being made, the road ahead and emerging risks. Stay informed with our insights on Ukraine’s Emerging Risks, Funding and International Support, and Sanctions and Export Controls, providing a view of the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
The ongoing conflict has significantly impacted Ukraine’s economic landscape, necessitating substantial foreign support, funding and investment towards its recovery and reconstruction. Public and private investment is now returning to Ukraine. As Ukraine navigates this new landscape, its financial outlook remains a critical area of focus for both domestic and international stakeholders. By analyzing recent economic trends, international support mechanisms, and the government’s fiscal policies, we aim to provide a comprehensive look into Ukraine’s dynamic evolving economy and financial landscape.
Emerging Risks
Businesses and investors/funders in Ukraine will encounter many challenges common to conflict zones, such as corruption, regulatory uncertainties, and infrastructure deficiencies. These factors, combined with the ever-evolving sanctions and international relations, contribute to a complex risk profile for Governments, NGOs and businesses operating in or considering investment into Ukraine. We explore the multifaceted nature of these business risks, providing insights into the challenges in this volatile region.
The funding and investment into Ukraine aims to not only alleviate the immediate impacts of the conflict, but also to pave the way for long-term stability and growth. By examining the various avenues of funding and international support, we provide an overview of the international collaborative efforts to rebuild and strengthen Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure.
Funding & International Support
Based on the World Bank and the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment Report (RDNA3) released in February 2024, Ukraine’s recovery needs are estimated to be around USD 486 billion. The RDNA3 report outlines the sectoral requirements as follows:
In September 2024, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers unveiled the draft budget for 2025, projecting a trade deficit of 21.6% of GDP (exceeding USD 40 billion), which Ukraine intended to cover with financial support from Western allies. The sources of funding mentioned in the budget include:
USD 38.4 billion from Western aid intended to cover the budget deficit for 2025.
USD 17.8 billion from agreements with the EU, IMF, and IBRD to be received in 2025.
USD 51 billion (EURO 50 billion) in loans from the G7, secured by profits on Russia’s frozen international reserves in Europe. Of this USD 36 billion (EURO 35 billion) in nonreturnable grants were promised by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, as part of the USD 51 billion (EURO 50 billion) packages. As of December 2024, these are pending approval by the European Parliament and European Commission.
International Aid & Support
The following international aid has been invested into Ukraine as of 31 October 2024.
Total Bilateral Aid Allocations To Ukraine Between January 2022 To January 2025 — Sourced from the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker)
The Trump administration has abruptly paused all US foreign aid (including aid to Ukraine), halting numerous projects, involving military and anti-corruption initiatives for a 90-day review period. Efforts to secure waivers for critical programs have been rejected, signalling a desire to overhaul existing aid structures
Military aid and budget funding remain unaffected: The previous administration’s funds and military aid programs are secure.
USAID reconstruction programs in limbo: The freeze mainly targets development programs, impacting initiatives like energy restoration and demining.
In January 2025, the European Council allocated USD 153 million (EURO 148 million) in humanitarian funding to Ukraine and Moldova.
In January 2025 the European Investment Bank (EIB) provided a USD 57 million (EURO 55 million) in EU guarantee-backed funds under the Ukraine Recover Programme to support reconstruction efforts. These funds can be allocated to any of the 151 sub-projects across various administrative divisions in Ukraine. These projects aim to restore essential services, strengthen community resilience, and drive economic recovery by creating jobs and supporting local economies.
In December 2024, the European Commission allocated nearly USD 4 billion (EURO 4.1 billion) to Ukraine. This latest disbursement brings the total EU funding provided to the Ukrainian government under the Facility to USD 17 billion (EURO 16.1 billion). The Ukraine Facility aims to support Ukraine’s efforts to maintain macro-financial stability, promote short-term recovery, and rebuild and modernize the country.
In 2024, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) deployed a record USD 3 billion (EURO 2.4 billion), following USD 2 billion (EURO 2.1 billion) in 2023.The EBRD focuses on energy security, vital infrastructure, food security, trade, and the private sector, providing finance through portfolio risk sharing and guarantee facilities.
The targeted sanctions and export control regimes are aimed at constraining Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations. These measures have evolved to include a wide range of individuals, entities, and sectors critical to Russia’s economy and the war effort. Key targets include major financial institutions, energy companies, defense contractors, and high-profile political figures.
Additionally, export controls have been tightened to restrict the flow of advanced technologies and goods that could bolster Russia’s military capabilities. These restrictions have also extended to other nations and governments that continue to provide military support by allowing their territories to be used in support of the conflict, continue to engage in foreign trade with Russia, as well as diplomatic backing to economic and military cooperation.
Sanctions and export controls have added additional layers of complexity for companies and their supply chains navigating an ever-changing landscape for businesses relying on Ukrainian supply chains or who are engaged in exporting goods to and from the country.
Tracking Recent Sanctions and Export Control Activity
Hover over a country for recent sanctions and export control activity
Recent Sanctions Themes
The EU Considers Russian Aluminium Ban Russia, the largest aluminum producer outside China, contributes about 5% to global production. The EU’s 16th sanctions package may include import restrictions on Russian aluminum, but their effectiveness is uncertain as Russia may find new buyers. The US and UK banned Russian metals in 2024. Currently, the EU bans certain aluminum products, which account for less than 15% of its imports.
Russian Oil Companies and Russia’s Tanker Shadow Fleet In December 2024, the EU’s 15th sanctions package targeted Moscow’s shadow fleet and military-industrial complex, affecting nearly 25 vessels by January 2025. Additionally, the UK and US imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft, PJSC Surgutneftegas, and 183 tankers used to export oil to India and China.
Mercenary Groups in Africa Linked to Russia In November 2024, the UK sanctioned 56 entities and individuals linked to Russia, including 10 in China. These sanctions target Russian activities in Libya, Mali, and Central Africa, focusing on three Kremlin-tied mercenary groups, including the Africa Corps, and 11 individuals.
Illicit Gold Trade Network Allegedly Funding Putin’s War Efforts In December 2024, the US and UK imposed sanctions on the illicit gold trade, which is believed to be funding Putin’s war in Ukraine. The UK government froze the assets of four individuals involved in gold smuggling and another who bought over $300 million worth of Russian gold, thus providing revenue to the Russian government.
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump made tariffs a cornerstone of his foreign and domestic policy. With new 25% tariffs now imposed on Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, the threat of additional tariffs against these, and other countries and trading partners, has not subsided. In addition to these measures, President Trump has announced a policy to charge reciprocal tariffs, meaning to tax foreign goods at the same rate other nations apply to American products.
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