In the International Construction Law Review, Stuart Jones presents an innovative approach to delay analysis in construction disputes. His article, “Overtaken by Events: What Delay Quantification Can Tell Us About Causality,” introduces a forensic and mathematical framework that challenges conventional assumptions about project delay and causation. 

Clarifying Causality in Construction Delay Claims 

Delay claims often rely on the assumption that every critical delay has a day-for-day impact on project completion. Mr. Jones’ analysis reveals that this assumption oversimplifies the reality of complex construction projects. Using a high-rise development in Seoul as a case study, Stuart introduces a set of equations to quantify delay and recovery at the activity level, revealing complexities of causal attribution and highlighting the differences between as-built and contemporaneous critical paths. Stuart advocates a two-stage framework that separates delay quantification from causation assessment, offering a more rigorous, defensible approach to delay claims in arbitration and litigation.   

Key Takeaways of the Article 

• Mathematization of Delay and Recovery 
  Jones derives a set of equations to quantify delay at the activity level, which illustrate how activity delay and recovery act in an aggregative way on the project duration. 

• A Two-Stage Framework for Delay Claims 
  Jones proposes a structured approach:
  • First, an objective quantification of delay and recovery using a network diagram. 
  • Second, a legal or contractual determination of causation based in part on the quantified delays. 

• Bridging Technical and Legal Reasoning 
  This approach reveals limits of what can be deduced directly from an as-planned versus as-built delay analysis and identifies where legal or contractual reasoning is necessary to determine the causes of project delay. 

Whether you’re preparing for arbitration, analysing project timelines, or advising clients on causation, Mr. Jones’ framework offers a more transparent, rigorous and defensible approach to delay attribution for legal counsel, expert witnesses, and construction professionals involved in delay claims and dispute resolution. 

Explore the full article to learn how Mr. Jones’ guidance on forensic delay quantification can reshape your approach to construction claims. Subscription may be required.