This project was completed by Intensity. Intensity joined Secretariat on February 1, 2023.
Intensity was engaged by a private equity firm to develop revenue forecasts for potential acquisition targets based on a combination of industry analysis, macroeconomic research, and company specific performance factors. Intensity’s analysis and probabilistic revenue forecasts gave the private equity investor high confidence in establishing an appropriate purchase price for a company they were evaluating, and quantifiable evidence for their negotiating position.
Intensity’s work included research on the industry sector that the targeted company was involved in to determine the growth potential of the company, macroeconomic factors that influenced industry performance, and an appropriate set of benchmark companies for comparison. We identified industry drivers and constructed a benchmark index representing sales performance of relevant companies in the industry.
Intensity developed a simulation model that forecasted a set of percentile-based benchmark performance predictions over a five year period. For each of several key projected benchmark percentiles, Intensity developed scenarios for the target company’s revenue performance relative to the benchmarks. Our work involved the development of econometric models and computational analysis using robust simulation techniques that incorporate historical performance, current expectations, state of the business cycle, and likelihood of a downturn. The Intensity econometric model utilized an array of regression specifications, including a number of combinations of the key industry drivers. The results from these regressions were aggregated to provide an econometric model that yields superior predictive performance relative to individual regressions.
Business Interruption Claims Arising from the Middle East Conflict
The current conflict in the Middle East has been as disruptive commercially as it has been geopolitically. Many businesses operating in the region are suffering from a combination of sharp demand declines, blocked routes to market, surging input costs, and physical damage to assets.
Competition and Market Structure of the U.S. Cannabis Industry
Although the FTC and DOJ retain jurisdiction to apply federal competition law, the continued federal illegality of cannabis under the Controlled Substances Act has created institutional uncertainty regarding the scope and propriety of federal engagement. In practice, most competition disputes in the sector have been addressed by state attorneys general and private litigants.
Secretariat Earns No. 1 Rank in the GAR Power Index for Third Consecutive Year
For the third consecutive year, Secretariat has been ranked No. 1 in the Global Arbitration Review (GAR) Expert Witness Firms’ Power Index 2026, unveiled March 26 at the GAR Awards during Paris Arbitration Week. For the third consecutive year, Secretariat has been ranked No. 1 in the Global Arbitration Review (GAR) Expert Witness Firms’ Power Index 2026, unveiled March 26 at the GAR Awards during Paris Arbitration Week.