This project was completed by Intensity. Intensity joined Secretariat on February 1, 2023.
Intensity was engaged by a private equity firm to develop revenue forecasts for potential acquisition targets based on a combination of industry analysis, macroeconomic research, and company specific performance factors. Intensity’s analysis and probabilistic revenue forecasts gave the private equity investor high confidence in establishing an appropriate purchase price for a company they were evaluating, and quantifiable evidence for their negotiating position.
Intensity’s work included research on the industry sector that the targeted company was involved in to determine the growth potential of the company, macroeconomic factors that influenced industry performance, and an appropriate set of benchmark companies for comparison. We identified industry drivers and constructed a benchmark index representing sales performance of relevant companies in the industry.
Intensity developed a simulation model that forecasted a set of percentile-based benchmark performance predictions over a five year period. For each of several key projected benchmark percentiles, Intensity developed scenarios for the target company’s revenue performance relative to the benchmarks. Our work involved the development of econometric models and computational analysis using robust simulation techniques that incorporate historical performance, current expectations, state of the business cycle, and likelihood of a downturn. The Intensity econometric model utilized an array of regression specifications, including a number of combinations of the key industry drivers. The results from these regressions were aggregated to provide an econometric model that yields superior predictive performance relative to individual regressions.
Justice for Players and Diarra Damages Claims
In this article, Amran Nawaz and Allan Ingraham along with Ben Cisneros and Sam Kasoulis of Morgan Sports Law discuss the JFP class action. They explore whether similar class actions could be brought by players, agents and/or clubs before the English courts, whether claims could be brought before the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), and how such claims might be quantified.
Tamika Tremaglio Quoted in The Washington Post on WNBA CBA Negotiations
Managing Director Tamika Tremaglio was featured in The Washington Post discussing the WNBA’s collective bargaining negotiations and the players’ growing leverage to pursue innovative financial models, including equity stakes. She emphasized that today’s athletes better understand their value and may have access to unique alternatives if negotiations do not end the way players want.
Public Policy Can Encourage Physicians to Practice in Underserved Areas
In a column for Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Secretariat Director Stephanie Khoury, Jonathan M. Leganza, and Alex Masucci discuss new evidence that shows the effectiveness of government-designated Primary Care Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs) in attracting physicians to areas of need.